This report presents various political scenarios for the future of South Africa. The most likely course of events is that Cyril Ramaphosa will be re-elected as president of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) in December 2022, even as ongoing divisions wrack the party. The ANC gets 48% in 2024, but stitches together a governing coalition. South Africa’s economy will grow, but slowly. A decisive win for Ramaphosa’s faction could unlock more rapid growth, while victory for the so-called Radical Economic Transformation camp could have unexpected positive outcomes.
