“What then are the possible future scenarios? If the TGoB, with the blessing of the region, were to accept the maximalist rebel claim to be given either the second vice presidential post or the Speakership of Parliament or, in a reconciliatory move, the
new post of Prime Minister, this could exacerbate the volatile situation that has
prevailed within the political institutions that have been in place since November
2001. This would necessitate the rewriting of a transition constitution because this
sudden provision was not included in the Arusha political agreement in the chapter
on power sharing. The risk, as pointed out by the actual transition executive team,
would be to create a disequilibrium in terms of both political and ethnic power sharing. The risk of handing the post of Speaker of Parliament to the CNDD lies in the negative message about the Arusha document that it would send to the signatories. It would mean a total reshuffle of Parliament by providing a majority to the newly-appointed speaker. The fact that the incumbent would not have endorsed the Arusha political agreement would be tantamount to acknowledging that the
Arusha Accord would not endure for much longer.”
