“The study has three main objectives, firstly to update both the models and the data developed and captured during the first integrated energy planning process. Secondly, to project future scenarios for
the South African energy system and determine how these developments compare to current sustainability indicators and thirdly to develop additional capacity for energy modelling in South Africa and particularly within the DME. The aim here is to lay out the energy system in South Africa as it is today, the options for the supply
and transformation of energy that are currently used and that may be available over the planning period. The document also informs the base case for the model and attempts to clearly document assumptions that have been used to develop the economic, demand and population projections. As the model is to be made available to the DME for use by its energy modelers and planners on
completion, the document serves as a guide to the model for the energy officers who will be using the model. In this study, we use energy models in conjunction with sustainability indicators to quantify future energy planning paths (or ‘road maps’) with relation not only to cost, energy output and emissions but also to social and environmental costs and benefits. This in turn provides planners and policy makers with options and ideas of how planning decisions may affect the economic, social and environmental well-being of the country. The aim of modelling is not to predict the future but rather to give an idea of what could happen. No model-generated results will be 100% accurate because there are many variables that could change with time that are taken into account when projecting into the future.”
