“A rebel takeover of Kinshasa or the withdrawal of Angolan soldiers from the country are merely two instances of circumstances that would have a direct influence on the situation in the Congo. A third possibility, of course, would be a negotiated settlement between Sassou-Nguesso, Lissouba and Kolélas. The most threatening scenario for Sassou-Nguesso would be if Luanda decided to withdraw
its troops from the Republic of the Congo as a result of UNITA activities in Angola. It is widely accepted that the Angolans are actually the military force keeping Sassou-Nguesso in place. Should they leave the country, his forces would be unable to contain the rebels. UNITA would in all likelihood then increase its support to the rebels, seeing the opportunity to open up
harbour facilities for its logistics lines. There have been rumours of approaches to
mercenaries to relieve the Angolan contingent, but the terrain and support from the local population make it unlikely that the rebels can be defeated decisively, in any event. A more positive scenario would be a negotiated settlement between the key players in the present conflict: Sassou-Nguesso, Lissouba and Kolélas.”
