In July 2018, without public consultation or scientific substantiation, South Africa’s
Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) raised its annual lion skeleton export quota to
1,500, up from 800 the year before. These skeletons are supplied by the predator breeding
industry, which breeds lions in captivity for multiple and sometimes overlapping purposes.
This is a report in two parts. The first is a formal academic review of the scientific and ‘grey’ (reports and newspaper articles) literature pertaining to the predator breeding industry. It interrogates the most recent attempt to quantify the economic significance of the industry and finds its
conclusions questionable for a number of reasons. One of its claims, for instance, is that the
predator breeding industry provides positive conservation value. The review examines this
claim against the available literature and finds it dubitable. Finally, it examines the dynamics of the
lion bone trade and questions whether predator breeding can satisfy demand for tiger and
lion derivative parts in East-Southeast Asia. The second part of the report provides a framework for assessing the claims – made by the predator breeding industry – of economic significance and positive conservation value. The literature is relatively clear that these claims do not correspond to reality, but no work yet exists in the public domain that tentatively quantifies the costs and benefits of the industry. The word ‘tentatively’ is used because the next steps required are a full forensic audit of the
industry and a more rigorous cost-benefit analysis using the most appropriate scientific methods. This report aims to provide a foundation on which future work can be built. In doing so, it provides more data than existing work to date. From that data, it demonstrates that current efforts to quantify the economic significance of the predator breeding industry are inadequate and likely misleading.. The report also demonstrates that the industry in its current form has no conservation value. To market it in that way is therefore disingenuous. In summary, the opportunity costs and negative externalities of the captive predator breeding industry in South Africa warrant substantive public policy reform and
highlight the urgent need for more well-informed regulation.
