“Considering the heterogeneity of the countries of southern Africa and the
presence of South Africa and other middle-income countries in the region, southern
Africa has a unique opportunity to exploit agricultural potential and regional trade
opportunities through regional dynamics and integration. We analyze the implications of
such opportunities for the growth of the low-income countries, using a regional general
equilibrium model that captures growth linkages. We find that growth in the middleincome
southern African countries, such as South Africa, benefits the region’s lowincome
countries through increased demand for their agricultural exports. Agricultural
productivity growth, however, is necessary for low-income countries to take advantage of
South Africa’s growth. Productivity growth in the low-income countries’ grain and
livestock sectors generates more growth in GDP and food consumption than growth in
nontraditional export crops. Unlike other regions where growth in grain production is
likely to be constrained by domestic demand, expanding middle-income economies in
southern Africa provide additional demand for grains and livestock, slowing the decline
in grain prices in the region.”
