“Does disarmament lead to effective local government and the provisions of services, or does effective government end the need for civilians to arm themselves? The GoSS and the SPLA argue for disarmament first, but the completion of the campaign in 2006 did not end the violence, produce good government,or lead to development. Repeating the same arguments in 2009-10 raises the political stakes and leaves the legitimacy of the SPLM-led government and the SPLA very much in the balance should they fail to
deliver a second time. As a result, whether the tribes comply voluntarily or not, the 2010 disarmament is likely to be much more far reaching than that carried out in 2006. And that could translate into a successful outcome, resistance, or initial acquiescence by the tribes, which will wait to see if the SPLA can deliver on its fundamental promise of providing security. But in any case that is only the first step and unless the authorities move quickly to establish effective local governments, building infrastructure, and providing services and jobs the cost in financial and human resources in carrying out this latest disarmament is likely to come to naught.”
