“Although reports of skirmishes are continuing in Liberia, it seems that for the moment the peace pact is holding in the country. But there are several factors that could play a role in returning the country to renewed civil war. LURD, who have already expressed their dissatisfaction with Blah as President of the country, said they would resume fighting should he refuse to hand over power on October 14. It seems likely, though, that Blah will hand over power to Bryant, as his forces are now squeezed between ECOMIL (that acts as a buffer to LURD) in the north and MODEL in the south.
The rebels themselves remain the biggest unknown factor in the Liberian peace process
and whether they will give up the four-fifths of the country they took over in the last four years of fighting for powersharing with the ex-Taylor government, remains to be seen.”
