Everything indicates that Liberia’s October 2005
presidential and legislative elections are likely to be
transparent and fair. Many hope this will permit an exit
strategy to be implemented that could see international
actors leaving the country as soon as the end of 2006.
The probable result of such a scenario would be that, in
the words of one ex-combatant, “the UN will be coming
back in 2007 or 2008”. Liberia has been crumbling for at
least 25 years. Elections are but a small, early step in a
lengthy reconstruction process that will be sabotaged if
Liberian elites refuse some form of intrusive economic
governance mechanism, or if international partners pull
out before a sustainable security environment is achieved.
If the international community does have to return in
several years, it will be to mop up yet another war that
will cost far more than remaining seriously engaged
over the next decade or more.
The UN, the U.S., the European Commission and the
World Bank must stay the course, working in conjunction
with the Economic Community of West African States
(ECOWAS) and the African Union (AU) to rebuild
Liberia’s shattered institutions and infrastructure, and
assuring Liberia’s security first through maintenance
of the UNMIL peacekeeping presence and eventually
through the training and mentoring of new Liberian
security forces. In a regional context in which UN
peacekeeping forces are drawing down to zero in Sierra
Leone, Guinea remains volatile, and violence in Côte
d’Ivoire simmers just beneath the surface, anything less
than full commitment to reintegration and reconstruction
in Liberia will most likely contribute to a new, wider
conflict.
Despite the fragility of the situation, there is much room
for optimism in Liberia today. Preparations for elections
are on track, though such areas as campaign finance will
require continued and serious attention. Refugees and
internally displaced persons (IDPs) are returning home,
even if not under ideal circumstances. Life in both
Monrovia and distant counties is taking on the rhythms,
sounds and appearance of normality. Most importantly,
issues of economic governance and high level corruption
have become a central preoccupation of almost everyone
in the country as a result of investigations conducted by
ECOWAS and the European Commission. The intrusive Governance and Economic Management Assistance
Program (GEMAP) that donors and diplomats have
proposed is in the final stages of negotiation with the
transitional government.
