“This report evaluates below three emerging factors and their threats to peace talks for Northern Uganda: 1)Ugandan President Museveni’s growing impatience and considering regional military action against rebels in January 2008 if negotiations remain stalled. 2)Defection of senior level commanders and the rift between LRA top leader Joseph Kony and his second in command Vincent Otti have raised fears of rebel volatility. 3)Escalating tensions in Southern Sudan may spell disaster for the delicate peace agreement there, diverting attention from the Juba mediation and rekindling violence that spills over in Northern Uganda.”
