Using the International Futures model, this note explores the effect of COVID-19 on economic and human development in Uganda in the short and long term. The model examines different scenarios to gauge the damages inflicted on the Ugandan economy. The Current Path scenario reflects the impact of COVID-19, while the No COVID scenario represents the path Uganda was on prior to the pandemic. In its first two years, the COVID-19 pandemic set back economic growth and resulted in a reduction in GDP per capita (at market exchange rates) of nearly 8 percent compared to the No COVID scenario. This difference grows to nearly 14 percent by 2030. We estimate the pandemic pushed an additional 1.4 million people below Uganda’s national poverty line by 2021. Income constraints have further resulted in an additional 520,000 people, including 11,000 children, suffering from malnutrition. The SDG Push scenario models a concerted and integrated push toward a sustainable development agenda designed to improve the lives of Ugandans and economic, social, and environmental outcomes for the country in the long run. This scenario requires transformative action and bold investments to move Uganda out of the Current Path and onto a new trajectory. GDP per capita catches up with the No COVID trajectory by 2030, fully making up for the setback experienced because of COVID. By 2040, at $2,600, it is 41.6 percent greater than the COVID scenario and 20.1 percent greater than the No COVID scenario. It pulls 3.5 million Ugandans out of poverty with a reduction in adult and child malnutrition by 44 percent and 50 percent respectively. Given our findings from the projections, future policy imperatives must take the form of reprioritizing budgetary allocation towards public health, education, sanitation, and other forms of welfare expenditure. These steps have significant consequences on economic growth, human wellbeing and development in the long run by not only aiding in recovery but also improving resilience against potential future crises.
