Somalia’s Islamic Courts fell even more dramatically
than they rose. In little more than a week in December
2006, Ethiopian and Somali Transitional Federal
Government (TFG) forces killed hundreds of Islamist
fighters and scattered the rest in a lightning offensive.
On 27 December, the Council of Somali Islamic
Courts in effect dissolved itself, surrendering political
leadership to clan leaders. This was a major success
for Ethiopia and the U.S. who feared emergence of a
Taliban-style haven for al-Qaeda and other Islamist
extremists, but it is too early to declare an end to
Somalia’s woes. There is now a political vacuum
across much of southern Somalia, which the
ineffectual TFG is unable to fill. Elements of the
Courts, including Shabaab militants and their al-
Qaeda associates, are largely intact and threaten
guerrilla war. Peace requires the TFG to be reconstituted
as a genuine government of national unity but the
signs of its willingness are discouraging. Sustained
international pressure is needed.
The Courts’ defeat signals the return of clan-based
politics to southern Somalia. Whereas the Courts
drew their support predominantly from the Hawiye
clan, the TFG is widely perceived as dominated by
Darod clan interests. TFG leaders reinforced this
perception by pursuing policies that further alienated
the Hawiye, notably an appeal for foreign troops and
the government’s relocation to Jowhar and then
Baidoa, instead of Mogadishu. Hawiye alienation and
TFG inadequacies left a vacuum into which the Courts
expanded between June and December 2006, bringing
a degree of peace and security unknown to the south
for more than fifteen years. Mogadishu was reunited,
weapons removed from the streets and the port and
airport reopened. By December, the Courts had
expanded from their Mogadishu base to control most
of the territory between the Kenyan border and the
autonomous region of Puntland in the north east,
while the TFG was confined to Baidoa, protected by
its Ethiopian backers. Communities seemed prepared
to tolerate a strict interpretation of Sharia law in
return for peace and security.
