The well-established decline of a radical Islamist project at the heart of the NCP and the dynamics discussed in this briefing, point to major shifts in Sudan’s relations within the Middle East and with its immediate east African neighbours. This should also change the context in which many other international actors, including the U.S. and UK, relate to Khartoum. A more pragmatic approach from Western countries should be engendered with the progressive inclusion of Sudan in Gulf States’ political alliances and more constructive behaviour in relations with Juba and Kampala, coupled with the apparent durability of President Bashir and the NCP. This should be developed with the understanding that major diplomatic shifts in the region can have a significant impact on the capacity of both government and rebel groups to wage open conflict. Policy toward Sudan should become more forward-looking in line with the changing strategic realities in the region.
