“The objectives of this study are to capture the extent to which impacts of China’s economic growth are transmitted to Angola, both positively and negatively, through the
bilateral trading relationship and to provide some policy advice as to how Angola may maximize the economic benefits and minimize the costs from this increasingly important trade channel. The conclusion from this analysis of Angola’s trading profile and performance is that its exports are (a) determined by oil exports and will be in at least the medium term future, (b) the value of these oil exports is determined almost solely by the cartel-controlled OPEC quota, a quota in which Angola itself as a member of OPEC has some influence upon, and finally (c) that the oil trading relationship with China is a complex one in that it is inexorably linked to Chinese investment and aid in Angola, with the latter having been expanded upon and unpacking in the companion papers on China-Angola aid relations and China-Angola investment relations. Thus, given that the oil supply will be set by quota, the crucial export performance question becomes one of future oil prices. It is not for us to speculate too much upon that price, but rather present an historical graph of the real oil price over the last half century.”
