This report analyses Tunisia’s most likely Current Path development trajectory post COVID-19,
and the impact of three alternative scenarios. The Growth-led scenario simulates a future
where Tunisia pursues economic growth at all costs. The Leapfrogging scenario takes
advantage of technology to rapidly adopt modern systems for development. Finally, in the
Sustainability & Equality scenario, Tunisia improves economic and human development
without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs. This report presents an integrated analysis of Tunisia’s likely future development trajectory (or Current Path) to 2040, using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform. The analysis is then complemented by presenting the impact of three policy orientations that prioritise growth, sustainability and equality, and leapfrogging, respectively. The three pathways frame the
choices for resource allocation and accompanying trade offs that need to be made for the future. Underpinning all three scenarios is the need to reform governance.
