Report

Transition and Continuity in Burundi

On 20 May 2020 Burundians went to the polls to elect their next head of state as well as
members of Parliament and local councillors. What was behind President Pierre Nkurunziza’s
decision to give up on his attempt to extend his rule? How would this play out? Beyond
these questions, this report attempts to assess the possible profile of the new government,
the power struggles that are likely to result and their possible consequences for future
governance in Burundi. This report that was finalised before the announcement of final results, addresses the issues at stake in the elections. It is divided into five parts. The first concentrates on Nkurunziza’s quest to remain in power and the main events that led to the current configuration of competing political players. The second reviews the main forces involved. The third part examines the political and security context, the legal and regulatory framework of the elections and the possible scenarios; a section is dedicated to international
actors. The following part provides a situational analysis of Burundi and, through this, an overview of the multiple challenges awaiting its political institutions in the future. The fifth part focuses on the possible profile of the new government and on the resulting power struggles
and their possible consequences for the direction of governance in the country new government and on the resulting power struggles and their possible consequences for the direction of governance in the country