After years of political deadlock and continued
economic and humanitarian decline, a realistic chance
has at last begun to appear in the past few months to
resolve the Zimbabwe crisis, by retirement of
President Robert Mugabe, a power-sharing
transitional government, a new constitution and
elections. Both factions of the divided Movement for
Democratic Change (MDC) opposition and powerful
elements of the Zimbabwe African National Union-
Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) party support the concept
in outline. Although many of his party’s leaders are
pressing him to retire in twelve months, when his
term expires, Mugabe seeks to extend his tenure to
2010 by a constitutional amendment to harmonise
presidential and legislative elections in that year.
Increased pressure and intervention including from
the regional organisation, the Southern African
Development Community (SADC), and the West, in
the run-up to the mid-year parliamentary session,
could lead to a new political order, but concessions to
ZANU-PF should only be made in exchange for true
restoration of democracy.
The economic meltdown, as well as the bite of
European Union (EU) and U.S. targeted sanctions, is
pushing ZANU-PF towards change, since business
interests of key officials are suffering. The party is
split over the succession issue but Mugabe’s long
successful divide-and-rule tactics have started to
backfire as the two main factions are coming together
to try to prevent him from staying beyond the
expiration of his present term in March 2008. They
showed their strength by blocking his proposed
constitutional amendment at the party’s annual
conference in December 2006 and will seek to do so
again at the central committee in March so they can
explore a deal resulting in his retirement to make way
for moderate leaders who could negotiate with the
MDC and civil society on transitional mechanisms,
seek SADC endorsement and reengage with the West
and foreign investors.
